1 Introduction -- Overview -- Prediction in Criminology -- Ethical Issues -- What Sample Should Be Used to Estimate the Model? -- Selection of a Criterion Variable -- Use and Selection of Explanatory Variables -- Selection of a Statistical Model -- What Are Realistic Goals for Prediction? -- The Career Criminal Paradigm -- Previous Use of Survival Analysis in Justice Research -- Preview of Coming Attractions -- 2 Data -- The Nature of the Data -- Definitions of Variables -- Comparisons of Subsamples -- 3 Survey of Statistical Methodology -- Survival Time Models -- Estimation of Survival Time Models -- Predictions Using Survival Time Models -- 4 Simple Models -- Nonparametric Prediction -- The Exponential Distribution -- The Lognormal Model -- The Log-Logistic Model -- The Weibull Model -- The LaGuerre Model -- Conclusions -- 5 Split Population Models -- The Split Exponential Model -- The Split Lognormal Model -- The Split Log-Logistic Model -- The Split Weibull Model -- The Split LaGuerre Model -- Conclusions -- 6 The Proportional Hazards Model -- The Model and Its Estimation -- Results of Estimation -- Predictions From the Proportional Hazards Model -- Conclusions -- 7 Parametric Models With Explanatory Variables -- Models Based on the Exponential Distribution -- Results for Exponential Models -- Predictions From Exponential Models -- Models Based on the Lognormal Distribution -- Results for Lognormal Models -- Predictions From Lognormal Models -- A Model Based on the LaGuerre Distribution -- Conclusions -- 8 Predictions for Nonrandom Samples and for Individuals -- Predictions Across Release Cohorts -- Subsample Predictions -- Individual Predictions -- Conclusions -- 9 Summary and Conclusions -- Summary -- Conclusions -- References -- Author Index.