1. Reporting a Forecast -- Convincing Strategies -- The Report as Feedback -- Summary -- 2. Types of Evidence -- Multiple Methods -- Judgmental vs. Quantitative -- Theory -- Evidence -- Discourse -- Summary -- Aside -- 3. An Historical Classification -- Intuitive Methods -- Deductive Methods -- Induction Methods -- Activist Methods -- Imaginary Methods -- Conclusion -- 4. Group Forecasts -- Work Groups -- Group Motivation -- Group Compatibility -- 5. Question Instruments -- Organization -- The Questions -- Data Types -- Annual Profit Questionnaire -- Tests -- Internal and External Validity -- 6. Interviews -- Who to Interview -- The Interview -- Problems with Human Judgment -- The Backlash -- 7. Extrapolation -- Eyeballing -- Averaging -- Trend -- Differencing -- Exponential Smoothing -- Curve Fitting -- Regression against Time -- ARIMA -- Markov Chains -- Accuracy Measures -- Testing a Forecast -- Conclusions -- 8. Causal Models -- Regression -- Multiple Regression -- Other Methods -- Historic Model vs Forecast Model -- 9. Bootstrapping and Expert Systems -- Bootstrapping -- Expert Systems -- 10. Deterministic Models -- Building Deterministic Models -- 11. Eclectic Methods -- The One Big Model -- Weights? -- Information Gathering -- 12. Bankruptcy Forecasts -- Ratios or Bankruptcy? -- Research Method -- The Method and Statistics -- Other Research -- Conclusion -- Annotated Bibliography -- 13. Profit Forecasts -- Accuracy -- Analysts vs. Managers -- Predictors of Profit -- Share Market Information? -- Analytical Review -- Conclusion -- Annotated Bibliography -- 14. Disclosure -- The Signalling View -- Marketing the Manager -- Expectation Adjustment -- Agency Theory -- Institutional Theory -- Contingency Theory -- Some Empirical Evidence -- Conclusions -- 15. Evaluating a Forecast -- Change -- Acceptable -- Multiple Simple Methods -- Forecast Group -- Input Data -- Costs -- Conclusions -- References.