Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk için kapak resmi
Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk
Başlık:
Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk
ISBN:
9783642582035
Personal Author:
Edition:
1st ed. 1991.
Yayın Bilgileri:
Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg : Imprint: Springer, 1991.
Fiziksel Tanımlama:
VIII, 100 p. online resource.
Series:
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 363
Contents:
1 Axiomatic Utility Theory under Risk -- 1.1 Historical Overview -- 1.2 The Axiomatic Basis of Expected Utility Theory -- 1.3 The Empirical Evidence against the Independence Axiom -- 1.4 Non-Linear Utility Theory under Risk -- 2 A Rank-Dependent Utility Model with Prize-Dependent Distortion of Probabilities -- 2.1 Rank-Dependent Utility Theory Reconsidered -- 2.2 Homogeneity on Elementary Lotteries -- 2.3 Further Evidence for Prize-Dependent Distortions of Probabilities -- 2.4 A Characterization Theorem -- 2.5 Rank-Dependent Utility Theory and Relative Utility -- 2.6 A Generalized Model -- 3 Risk Aversion -- 3.1 Risk Aversion in the General Rank-Dependent Utility Model -- 3.2 Risk Aversion and Homogeneity -- 3.3 Decreasing Risk Aversion -- 3.4 The Friedman-Savage Hypothesis -- Conclusion -- References.
Abstract:
During the development of modern probability theory in the 17th cen­ tury it was commonly held that the attractiveness of a gamble offering the payoffs :1:17 ••• ,:l: with probabilities Pl, . . . , Pn is given by its expected n value L:~ :l:iPi. Accordingly, the decision problem of choosing among different such gambles - which will be called prospects or lotteries in the sequel-was thought to be solved by maximizing the corresponding expected values. The famous St. Petersburg paradox posed by Nicholas Bernoulli in 1728, however, conclusively demonstrated the fact that individuals l consider more than just the expected value. The resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox was proposed independently by Gabriel Cramer and Nicholas's cousin Daniel Bernoulli [BERNOULLI 1738/1954]. Their argument was that in a gamble with payoffs :l:i the decisive factors are not the payoffs themselves but their subjective values u( :l:i)' According to this argument gambles are evaluated on the basis of the expression L:~ U(Xi)pi. This hypothesis -with a somewhat different interpretation of the function u - has been given a solid axiomatic foundation in 1944 by v. Neumann and Morgenstern and is now known as the expected utility hypothesis. The resulting model has served for a long time as the preeminent theory of choice under risk, especially in its economic applications.
Dil:
English